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History of the World Part II

By Miles Weston

?Oh, Caesar. I've spread civilization to the farthest reaches of the Empire! I've conquered and subdued the barbaric hordes, in the name of Rome! I've penetrated into the farthest...?  ? Marcus Vindictus, History of the World Part I (1981)

 

Sequel ? Mel Brooks brought us from zero to 1981 with History of the World, Part I.  We were all happy to stroll along with modest progress until OLPC emerged on the scene and MIT?s Negroponte is set to write the sequel.  Source ? 20th Century-Fox

Imagine?envying some kid in a third world country (and Alabama) !

But all of a sudden they?re being offered a really good, really connected, really low power consumption, really rugged notebook for about $100! 

All because some MIT professor came up dreamt up One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) and its gaining traction.

Sure the XO  system is anemic next to ours -- sub-500Mhz processor, 256 of RAM and 1GB of flash storage.  

It?s a neat looking machine.  Has features we like.

Our systems have always been?a ?little? touchy?a ?little? hard to connect all the time?a ?little? tough on the battery?a ?little? more rugged than a dozen eggs.

Granted the XO?s little rabbit ears, lime color wouldn?t be a road warrior?s first choice but?it kinda grows on you.
 

OLPC XO ? Initially thought to be nothing but a pipe dream, Negroponte with the assistance of organizations around the globe has begun showing a rugged, environmentally protected and easy to use $100 notebook computer what can be used almost anywhere in the world to encourage kids to learn.  The unit has attracted a number of heavy-hitter competitors.

Road warriors ? guys/gals who spend days/weeks on the road -- have always been a breed apart.

Warriors Hit The Road
That moniker emerged when Adam Osborne introduced the first ?portable? computer  back in ?81.

Osborne 1 ? Adam Osborne was the first to introduce a portable computer and launch a multi-billion dollar business.  Unfortunately his was the first firm to disappear.  Since then the industry has made mobile systems lighter, more reliable, more effective, more user friendly but the price for a road warrior system has remained fairly constant.

Real men, real women began taking their computing power off the desk?onto the road. 

It was a beauty to behold?all 24.5 pounds.

A road warrior was easy to identify.

 He/she walked slightly bent with extended arms and bowed legs. 

It took two hands to lug the sucker as you staggered to your plane (no airport security slowed you down).  

There were no fat road warriors!  They exercised with their luggables.

They had everything you needed ? system,  mono monitor (smaller than a PSP screen), cables, word processing and spreadsheet software.  

Some road warriors even had their systems painted commando colors?real Rambos !!!

In 1983, Adam bragged about new systems (preannounced).  Osborne Computer became roadkill on the computer highway.

Killing sales with preannouncements became known as the Osborne Effect.

Today most folks practice the golden rule -- ?don?t announce the damn thing until it is sitting on the store?s receiving dock.? 

Others have added their unique wrinkle. 

Announcing they are not going to deliver a product (guerilla marketing, buzz) until Steve decides it should suddenly?appear!!!

Fast forward 25 years

21st Century Warriors
Road warrior systems are now for wimps:
- anything over five pounds is obese
- want to connect to someone/something wham, bam you?re on at broadband speeds ? no need for a coupler and less than 14.4kbps connectivity
- capacity concerns are non-existent.  Even with all the bloatware, there?s room for home movies, three TV shows, complete music library,  photos from the Hawaii trip, oh yes and all the business or classwork files you need.  What?s a 5.25 or 3.5-in floppy?

But some things are still the same:
- drop the system going through airport strip search and visions of calling DriveSavers pass before your eyes
- the clumsy oaf walking by your table at the coffee shop spills his/her triple mocha latte on your system and you immediately perform CPR
- there are a gazillion ways to kill or wound your system, one way to keep it working?tender/loving care

As Moses said, ?The Lord, the Lord Jehovah has given unto you these fifteen...
Oy! Ten! Ten commandments for all to obey!?

Performance, capacity, capabilities, color, battery life improved but the ?real? road warrior?s system still cost $1,000 - $2,500.

Sure, Wal-Mart and Best Buy offer $300 - $500 systems but are they really something a warrior would take on the road?

Comicus would only mumble, ?I'm fighting with cardboard!?

Consummate Battle Gear
Only Panasonic focused on a light, powerful road warrior system.

Work Horse ? While most manufacturers concentrated on style and cost reduction, Panasonic developed, refined and expanded the rugged notebook market.  Other than delivering cheap systems, the niche market suddenly looks very attractive to the rest of the industry and will be a requirement for road warriors? system in the years to come.

We?ve never had the testosterone to buy one but we were impressed.

Other than the military, CIA, FBI, police  we never knew who road warrior machines!  

According to Forrester and IDC the industry is selling more notebook than desktop systems?over 100 million units this year.

Figure 1 - Mobile Shift ? Once considered less than desirable for day-to-day work and good for lighter activity on the road, notebooks have increasingly the computer of choice for business, school and home.  Source -- IDC

The notebook manufacturers have squeezed their suppliers as possible.  The systems are as powerful as their desktop cousins.

Everyone has all of the creature comforts to compute/connect when you want, where you want ? USB ports, highdef color screens, huge HDs, WiFi, surround sound, yada yada.

It?s like the Column Salesman said, ?Columns, columns! Get your columns here! Ionic, Doric, Corinthian! Put a few columns in front, turn any hovel into a showplace! Columns...! Sir, don't touch the merchandise!?

Adding bells & whistles adds costs so...

rugged computers looks inviting:
? magnesium cases
? shock mounted hard drives
? flood resistant keyboards
? environmental protection

Soon not being rugged will be as rare as Osborne?s sewing machine cases.

Defending The Poor
Then there?s Nicholas Negroponte?s rugged little OLPC for a hundred bucks!

Fresh Approach ? Nicholas Negroponte, an MIT professor, dreamed the impossible dream ? putting computers in the hands of youth around the world.  Initially it was only a pipe dream but the dream is slowly becoming a reality.  It?s so real that a number of manufacturers believe they can deliver competitive solutions.

Sure:
- you can?t be run over it with a tank
- its Linux OS doesn?t play nice with Windows or Mac programs?hey don?t even play nice with each other
- it only has a measly little 1GB of storage?eliminate 10GB of bloatware and 1GB may not be enough but?ain?t bad!

And you can read the screen in broad daylight. 

When the battery gets low, pull out the little crank, whip it around for about 10 minutes and BAM!!! you?re in business.

Yeah but?it isn?t a WinTel system?

Wait?Intel has their version of the XO. 

Gordon Moore even extended a hand of cooperation to OLPC. 

MS is testing the waters with a system that uses a version of an OS that really works?XP.

Negroponte may be ticked but MS, Intel aren?t dummies.  They ran the numbers.

Figure 2 - Real Market ? Once Intel and Microsoft got beyond calling the idea of a $100 computer wishful thinking, they looked at the numbers and realized there were a lot of teens and tweens around the globe and they could be a viable market now?and in the future.  If systems could be sold it is only logical that they include an Intel chip and MS operating system rather than some lesser options.

Impressive!

As Mademoiselle Rimbaud said, ?the poor ain?t so bad!?

What About Us
Sure, we want a few mods for our system:
- pump up the RAM to 1GB
- throw in a bloatware-free 80GB HD
- plastic battery crank is cool
- ok a few other bells and whistles

Once we begin seeing Negroponte (and clone) systems everywhere road warriors are going to take note and want systems in that price range. 

They?ll repeat Madame DeFarge?s explanation??We are so poor, we do not even have a language! Just this stupid accent!? 

If it?s only available in a lime green?we can live with that!

Think of it? best of breed system for the kids and the road warriors. 

IDC noted just a year or so ago that the industry had started on its second billion systems.  OLPC and its clones may get us there faster than they thought and at a lower cost to the user.

May not be as good as giving the poor of the world real food but then?we?ll all be able to say?it?s good to be king!!!!